Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Statement to Parliament as an economic update rather than a full fiscal package, reaffirming the government’s commitment to having just one major fiscal event per year (the Autumn Budget). As expected, no new major tax or spending measures were announced today; the statement centred on new economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
We’ve collated the key points from today’s statement below:
Economic Forecasts (OBR)
- GDP growth for 2026 revised down to 1.1 %, weaker than previous forecasts
- Growth is expected to pick up later: forecast at 1.6 % in 2027 and 2028
- Average CPI inflation is now forecast to fall to 2.3 % in 2026, slightly lower than previous forecasts, and towards the Bank of England’s 2 % target
- Unemployment is projected to peak in 2026 (5.3 %) before declining over the forecast period
- Public sector net borrowing is forecast to fall steadily, from around 4.3 % of GDP in 2026 to 1.8 % by 2029-30
- The fiscal “headroom” has increased to almost £24 billion, signalling stronger public finance metrics relative to the government’s fiscal rules
Other Notable Points
- The OBR warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions could materially impact inflation and growth forecasts
- The Chancellor highlighted six cuts to interest rates since the election, which have reduced finance costs for households and businesses
David Moule, CEO at Exemplas, comments:
“Modest growth forecasts reinforce a simple truth: productivity is still the path to sustainable economic progress.
Turning policy into performance requires high-quality, on-the-ground delivery. Where business takes the initiative, and with the additional advantage of well-designed and outcome-focused business support, growth follows.”